Introduction

How to interpret model predictions is critical to effective applications of ecological models in developing forest adaptive strategies under climate change.  In this module, we will discuss what the issues are in model interpretation and applications and how to avoid these issues. We will also demonstrate the applications of model predictions with several case studies, including four major tree species and two forest ecosystems, in North America and Asia. 

Outcomes

By the end of this module, you should be able to:

• Distinguish between climate niche models (CNMs) and species distribution models (SDMs);
• Describe the difference between a predicted realized niche and a predicted fundamental niche;
• Describe the expected response of populations to climate change based on climate niche model prediction;
• Apply model prediction to the species of your interest following the case studies.