Topic Introduction

Model interpretations and applications can be complex. Case studies are often an effective way to demonstrate those complicated situations. In this topic, we will show students with four case studies from different parts of the world. For each case, we will explain how to interpret the predicted climate niche and projected shift in future periods, and how to apply the prediction and projections to develop forest adaptive strategies. 

By the end of this topic, you should be able to:

• Correctly interpret ecological niche predicted by an ecological niche model for a tree species of your interest;
• Apply the climate niche model prediction and projections to predict tree responses in different areas;
• Apply the climate niche model prediction and projections to develop forest adaptive strategies.

Topic Readings

Required Readings

• None

Optional Readings

• Wang, T.; Campbell, E.M.; O’Neill, G.A.; Aitken, S.N. Projecting future distributions of ecosystem climate niches: Uncertainties and management applications. For. Ecol. Manag. 2012, 279, 128–140.
• Wang, T.;Wang, G.; Innes, J.; Nitschke, C.; Kang, H. Climatic niche models and their consensus projections for future climates for four major forest tree species in the Asia—Pacific region. For. Ecol. Manag. 2016, 360, 357–366.

Fundamental Concepts

Self Check (For certificate learning only)

After reading for this topic, take 5 minutes to take an online self-check quiz for the topic. The main purpose of the quiz is for you to self-check how well you grasp the contents for this topic. It will cover contents of the lecture(s) for the topic. Five attempts are allowed and highest mark will be saved to show your achievement.

When you are ready, click the link Self-check Quiz 5.2 to start taking the quiz.

Activities & Assignments (For certificate learning only)

Online Discussions

Online discussions are much like face-to-face discussions. Students are required preparation and active participation in order to the learning objectives. The online discussion will be asynchronous (i.e., students can participate at different times) and will be closed at the end of the week. This discussion accounts for 2 marks graded based on participation and quality of the posts. Each student is required to have at least one post. Everyone is encouraged to rate each post. The first post account for 70%, the second one for 20% and third one for 10% of the participation, respectively. The first post with at least five sentences is considered as the “first post”. A simply “Yes or No” post is not considered as a post. The quality is graded by both Instructor (50%) and peer rating (50%).

Discussion Topics:

1. Differences in impacts of climate change on different tree species.
2. Options for helping trees to adapt to climate change using climate niche models.

To participate in the discussion, please go to Online Discussion 5.2 class forum.

Graded Assignments

None for the week.

Topic Summary

In this topic, we used four case studies to demonstrate the impact of climate change. We showed that the impact of climate change varied from region to region and from species to species. Some species is projected to expand its suitable areas, while other species are expected to contract dramatically. Thus, in developing forest adaptive strategies, it is necessary to be species specific.

Topic Self-review (For self learning)

Please use the reflection questions below as study guide to conduct self-review for the topic:

1. The impact of climate change on trees varies, why?
2. How to take the opportunities brought by climate change to plant more fast-growing trees.
3. In what circumstances, genetic conservation is important?