Topic Introduction

Many criticisms of climate niche models are resulted from misinterpretations of these models. In this topic, we will introduce students on how to correctly interpret these predictions from different types of models. We will also introduce how to correctly evaluate ecological models and to effectively apply them to develop forest adaptive strategies under climate change.

By the end of this topic, you should be able to:

• Evaluate the criticisms on climate niche models;
• Distinguish between climate niche models (CNMs) and species distribution models (SDMs);
• Explain the difference between predicted climate niche and actual species distribution;
• Predict trees responses in different sections of its distribution.

Topic Readings

Required Readings

• None

Optional Readings

• Araujo, M.B., Peterson, A.T., 2012. Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling. Ecology 93, 1527–1539.
• Wang T, Wang G, Innes J, Nitschke C, Kang H (2016) Climatic niche models and their consensus projections for future climates for four major forest tree species in the Asia–Pacific region. For Ecol Manage 360:357–366. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2015.08.004 Links to an external site.

Fundamental Concepts

Self Check (For certificate learning only)

After reading for this topic, take 5 minutes to take an online self-check quiz for the topic. The main purpose of the quiz is for you to self-check how well you grasp the contents for this topic. It will cover contents of the lecture(s) for the topic. Five attempts are allowed and highest mark will be saved to show your achievement.

When you are ready, click the link Self-check Quiz 5.1 to start taking the quiz.

Activities & Assignments (For certificate learning only)

Online Discussions

Online discussions are much like face-to-face discussions. Students are required preparation and active participation in order to the learning objectives. The online discussion will be asynchronous (i.e., students can participate at different times) and will be closed at the end of the week. This discussion accounts for 2 marks graded based on participation and quality of the posts. Each student is required to have at least one post. Everyone is encouraged to rate each post. The first post account for 70%, the second one for 20% and third one for 10% of the participation, respectively. The first post with at least five sentences is considered as the “first post”. A simply “Yes or No” post is not considered as a post. The quality is graded by both Instructor (50%) and peer rating (50%).

Discussion Topics:

1. Climate niche models (CNMs) vs. species distribution models (SDMs.
2. Expected tree responses to climate change at different sections of its distribution.

To participate in the discussion, please go to Online Discussion 5.1 class forum.

Graded Assignments

None for this week.

Topic Summary

One of the major impact of climate change on forest trees is the mismatch between the climate that the trees are historically adapted to and the climate that the trees will experience in the future. Climate niche model is an effective tool to deal with this problem. However, due to misunderstanding of the climate niche models, climate niche models have been mistakenly criticized. In this topic, we demonstrated the differences between climate niche models and species distribution models. We also showed how to use a climate niche model to understand the tree responses to climate change in different sections of the distribution.

Topic Self-review (For self learning)

Please use the reflection questions below as study guide to conduct self-review for the topic:

1. What are the issues in model interpretation?
2. What is the major difference between climate a niche model and a species distribution model?
3. Between the realized niche and the fundamental niche, which is more suitable for assisted migration?
4. What are the options in different sections of a species distribution to help trees to adapt to climate change?